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Warming Planet Threatens Food Supply bY lorriE bAumAnn Climate change is real – the uncertainty among scientists is no longer about whether the Earth is warming but about what's going to happen as a result. Climate change is considered to be a threat to live- stock production worldwide due to poten- tial impacts on the quality of feed and forage crops, water availability, livestock diseases and the effects of heat on animal metabolism that could mean smaller ani- mals that are more expensive to raise. "Among climate scientists, there's a very strong consensus that not only is the cli- mate changing but that the changes we are seeing go beyond what could be expected through natural activity alone," said James Hurrell, Director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder, Col- orado. "I think it is a very serious issue that we have to take into account in our plan- ning in many different ways." Scientists have been discussing the ef- fects of human activity on our planet's cli- mate since as far back as 1896, when Swedish physical chemist Svante August Arrhenius began publishing papers dis- cussing his theories about the importance of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas and the potential for industrially produced CO 2 to warm the atmosphere. In 1958, oceanographer Charles David Keeling noted increases in atmospheric CO 2 , documenting that CO 2 concentra- tions have increased nearly 40 percent since preindustrial times. "We know that it's due to human activity by measuring the the isotopic signature of the CO 2 ," Hurrell said. "This is not a topic we're discussing about something that's going to happen in the future. We are witnessing this. We are beginning to experience the impacts.... It's us. The changes we are seeing are going be- yond the realm of natural changes." Scientists around the world are in wide- spread agreement that climate change is oc- curring, it's having effects on the planet that can be observed, and it's primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels and deforesta- tion. The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is at its highest concen- tration in at least 800,000 years, according to analyses of air bubbles that were frozen into the ice at polar ice caps that long ago. While CO 2 levels do fluctuate naturally, particularly during ice ages, they hadn't ex- ceeded 300 parts of CO 2 per million parts of air until recently. The current level is nearly 400 parts per million. "We've expe- rienced 10,000 years of normal change just in the last century. By the end of this cen- tury, we could be almost 900 parts per mil- lion if we kept on with business as usual," Hurrell said. "This is something that's new, and the question is how is the planet going to respond to such a rapid change in green- house gases." As the climate changes, animal scientists are expecting it to affect livestock animals and the grasslands that provide their for- age. One easily understood effect is that as the temperature goes up, animals need to drink more water. Livestock watering al- ready accounts for about 8 percent of human water use around the world, and the expected increase in temperature has been predicted to increase animal water consumption by a factor of two to three. Temperature creates other stresses on live- stock that can result in reduced feed intake and alterations in physiological functions that dictate how well they'll gain weight and how well they'll reproduce. Texas A&M PhD student Jeff Martin has been studying bison fossils and what they can tell us about how the size of the ani- mals is affected by temperature differences in their environment. Bison have lived in North America for about 200,000 years, and measurements of their bones indicate that bison living in cooler climates tend to be larger than those living in warmer areas, GourmEt nEWS FEbruArY 2018 www.gourmetnews.com SuStAinAbilitY 2 0 French crepes are a snap to make with Stonewall Kitchen's new Dill & Chive Crepe Mix. The savory and subtly herba- ceous blend of dried ingredients comes together with just eggs, water and a few tablespoons of butter or oil to form a light and airy batter that cooks up in mere min- utes once introduced to a hot skillet. The resulting crepes are delicate but flavorful, the perfect vehicle for a fried egg, sautéed vegetables, dressed greens or cheese. Swap out bagels for crepes filled with smoked salmon and cream cheese, or try stuffing these thin pancakes with your fa- vorite sand- wich toppings for an elegant spin on a lunchtime sta- ple. 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It pairs well with any fine cheese or fruit, and is a good finishing touch for dishes, including salads, filet mignon, seafood dishes, grilled vegetables, certain desserts, vanilla ice cream, Greek yogurt, gelato and many more. It's also great for mari- nades or salad dressings, for which it pairs well with Ariston Select 100% Extra Virgin Olive Oil, Ariston Lemon Infused Olive Oil, Ariston Orange Infused Olive Oil or Aris- ton Blood Orange Infused Olive Oil. Ariston Specialties 860.263.8498 www.aristonspecialties.com partly because bison require specific tem- peratures to optimize their ability to digest the grasses they eat, according to Martin. In addition, calves developing in utero feel the effects of climate even before they're born, as their mothers' bodies combat heat stress. This causes the calves to be smaller at the time that they're weaned, and these changes may stay with them throughout their lives. "Artificial selection practiced by ranchers would affect this, but these ani- mals that you're trying to get bigger might not be able to sustain that growth. Energy to dissipate heat has a cost," Martin said. "It may not even matter what you try to do as you select to get bigger and better." "As temperatures get higher, the bison get smaller," Martin said. For every degree of global temperature increase, bison lose about 129 pounds per animal. "What we can predict now is a smaller bison through- out North America," he said. The United States livestock industry is already losing between $1.69 and $2.36 bil- lion due to heat stress, with about half of this occurring in the dairy industry. Since the best milkers are the most sensitive to heat stress, when heat stress goes up, milk production declines. This is true in goats and sheep as well as in cows. Poultry is also susceptible to heat stress, which reduces body weight gain, feed in- take and carcass weight. Heat stress on lay- ing hens compromises egg production by causing reduced feed intake and inter- rupted ovulation. Even that doesn't take into account the expected effects of climate change on the feed that's available to these animals. In- creases in the amount of carbon dioxide in the air are expected to affect how the plants grow in fields, with different plant species reacting differently. Scientists have found that some plants grown in atmospheres with elevated carbon dioxide levels pro- duce less protein and can provide less iron and zinc. That, in turn, will change the nu- trition that's available to the animals, in- cluding humans, that feed on them. We can also expect to see falling crop yields in many areas, particularly in devel- oping regions, according to Hurrell. Weed growth is promoted and herbicides lose ef- fectiveness as carbon dioxide levels in- crease, creating more problems with weeds, diseases and insects. All of this means that global warming is a threat to our world food supply, although there's a lot of uncertainty about how serious a problem this is going to be, and it's very clear that some parts of the world are going to feel it more than others. While produc- tion of cereal grains is expected to increase in the world's higher latitudes as a result of increasing carbon dioxide levels in the at- mosphere, giving North American and Russ- ian farmers an economic boost, food production in tropical countries is expected to decline. Globally, the potential for food production is expected to increase with a temperature increase that's only about 2 to 6 or so degrees Fahrenheit, but if the tem- perature increases more than that, food pro- duction is expected to decline. Those numbers will be affected by changes in weather patterns due to climate change, such as increased frequency and intensity of droughts and flooding, according to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has also noted that food insecurity would be further increased by the loss of cultivated land and fisheries nursery areas through coastal erosion and floodwater inundation in low-lying areas. GN "This is not a topic we're discussing about something that's going to happen in the future. We are witnessing this. We are beginning to experience the impacts.... It's us. The changes we are seeing are going be- yond the realm of natural changes." —JAMES HURRELL

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