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GOURMET NEWS OCTOBER 2017 www.gourmetnews.com NEWS & NOTES 1 0 Warming Planet Continued from PAGE 1 the importance of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas and the potential for indus- trially produced CO 2 to warm the atmos- phere. In 1958, oceanographer Charles David Keeling noted increases in atmospheric CO 2 , documenting that CO 2 concentra- tions have increased nearly 40 percent since preindustrial times. "We know that it's due to human activity by measuring the the isotopic signature of the CO 2 ," Hurrell said. "This is not a topic we're discussing about something that's going to happen in the future. We are witnessing this. We are beginning to experience the impacts.... It's us. The changes we are seeing are going be- yond the realm of natural changes." Scientists around the world are in wide- spread agreement that climate change is oc- curring, it's having effects on the planet that can be observed, and it's primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels and deforesta- tion. The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is at its highest concen- tration in at least 800,000 years, according to analyses of air bubbles that were frozen into the ice at polar ice caps that long ago. While CO 2 levels do fluctuate naturally, particularly during ice ages, they hadn't ex- ceeded 300 parts of CO 2 per million parts of air until recently. The current level is nearly 400 parts per million. "We've expe- rienced 10,000 years of normal change just in the last century. By the end of this cen- tury, we could be almost 900 parts per mil- lion if we kept on with business as usual," Hurrell said. "This is something that's new, and the question is how is the planet going to respond to such a rapid change in green- house gases." As the climate changes, animal scientists are expecting it to affect livestock animals and the grasslands that provide their for- age. One easily understood effect is that as the temperature goes up, animals need to drink more water. Livestock watering al- ready accounts for about 8 percent of human water use around the world, and the expected increase in temperature has been predicted to increase animal water consumption by a factor of two to three. Temperature creates other stresses on live- stock that can result in reduced feed intake and alterations in physiological functions that dictate how well they'll gain weight and how well they'll reproduce. Texas A&M PhD student Jeff Martin has been studying bison fossils and what they can tell us about how the size of the animals is affected by temperature differ- ences in their environment. Bison have lived in North America for about 200,000 years, and measurements of their bones indicate that bison living in cooler cli- mates tend to be larger than those living in warmer areas, partly because bison re- quire specific temperatures to optimize their ability to digest the grasses they eat, according to Martin. In addition, calves developing in utero feel the effects of cli- mate even before they're born, as their mothers' bodies combat heat stress. This causes the calves to be smaller at the time that they're weaned, and these changes may stay with them throughout their lives. "Artificial selection practiced by ranchers would affect this, but these ani- mals that you're trying to get bigger might not be able to sustain that growth. Energy to dissipate heat has a cost," Martin said. "It may not even matter what you try to do as you select to get bigger and better." "As temperatures get higher, the bison get smaller," Martin said. For every degree of global temperature increase, bison lose about 129 pounds per animal. "What we can predict now is a smaller bison through- out North America," he said. The United States livestock industry is already losing between $1.69 and $2.36 bil- lion due to heat stress, with about half of this occurring in the dairy industry. Since the best milkers are the most sensitive to heat stress, when heat stress goes up, milk production declines. This is true in goats and sheep as well as in cows. Poultry is also susceptible to heat stress, which reduces body weight gain, feed in- take and carcass weight. Heat stress on lay- ing hens compromises egg production by causing reduced feed intake and inter- rupted ovulation. Even that doesn't take into account the expected effects of climate change on the feed that's available to these animals. In- creases in the amount of carbon dioxide in the air are expected to affect how the plants grow in fields, with different plant species reacting differently. Scientists have found that some plants grown in at- mospheres with elevated carbon dioxide levels produce less protein and can pro- vide less iron and zinc. That, in turn, will change the nutrition that's available to the animals, including humans, that feed on them. We can also expect to see falling crop yields in many areas, particularly in devel- oping regions, according to Hurrell. Weed growth is promoted and herbicides lose ef- fectiveness as carbon dioxide levels in- crease, creating more problems with weeds, diseases and insects. All of this means that global warming is a threat to our world food supply, although there's a lot of uncertainty about how seri- ous a problem this is going to be, and it's very clear that some parts of the world are going to feel it more than others. While production of cereal grains is expected to increase in the world's higher latitudes as a result of increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, giving North American and Russian farmers an economic boost, food production in tropical countries is ex- pected to decline. Globally, the potential for food production is expected to increase with a temperature increase that's only about 2 to 6 or so degrees Fahrenheit, but if the temperature increases more than that, food production is expected to decline. Those numbers will be affected by changes in weather patterns due to climate change, such as increased frequency and intensity of droughts and flooding, according to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has also noted that food insecurity would be further in- creased by the loss of cultivated land and fisheries nursery areas through coastal ero- sion and floodwater inundation in low- lying areas. GN "This is not a topic we're discussing about something that's going to happen in the future. We are witnessing this. We are beginning to experience the impacts.... It's us. The changes we are seeing are going beyond the realm of natural changes." —JAMES HURRELL Mars CEO: Industry Must Fix Global Supply Chain to Tackle Climate, Social Threats Mars CEO Grant F. Reid committed during the United Nations General Assembly to lead Mars in a global effort to make "trans- formational change" in order to tackle the most urgent threats facing the planet and its people. Speaking ahead of September's UN Gen- eral Assembly and Climate Week in New York, Reid said the responsibility had never been greater for industry: "If we are to help deliver on the targets agreed in Paris and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, there has to be a huge step change. While many companies have been working on being more sustainable, the current level of progress is nowhere near enough." "Mars has been in business for four gen- erations and intends to be for the next four generations. The only way that will happen is if we do things differently to ensure that the planet is healthy and all people in our extended supply chains have the opportu- nity to thrive," he added. "We must work together, because the engine of global busi- ness – its supply chain – is broken, and re- quires transformational, cross-industry collaboration to fix it." Reid said that when tackling greenhouse gas emissions, for example, many busi- nesses, including Mars, have made good progress on the impact of their own direct operations, but haven't made enough progress in their broader supply chains. He added that efforts to address poverty and human rights down the global supply chain have been well-intentioned, but have not yielded satisfactory progress. "Data and connectivity are helping us get smarter about our impact every year. Today, climate science is clear, and we understand the environmental and social challenges in our supply chain better than ever before. With this knowledge, it is clear that the scale of intervention needs to be much bolder – now is the time for business to re- assess its role and responsibility in the face of the evidence," he said. As part of its response to these chal- lenges, Mars has announced its "Sustain- able in a Generation Plan." The plan includes a set of far-reaching goals and am- bitions underpinned by science and a de- termination to drive impact throughout the extended supply chain. To accelerate progress, Mars will invest approximately $1 billion in this effort. The plan focuses on areas where Mars can impact change on some of the world's biggest problems, as de- fined by the UN Sustainable Development Goals. As part of its Sustainable in a Generation Plan, Mars has announced a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across its value chain by 67 percent by 2050 – dramatically expanding on previous goals to reduce GHGs in its operations. Other goals in- clude reducing environmental impacts by focusing on climate action, water steward- ship and land management. The company will also be focusing on some ambitious social goals with the inten- tion of improving the working lives of 1 million people in the company's value chain. Initiatives will focus on increasing income, respecting human rights and un- locking opportunities for women. Mars will also be continuing its current efforts around food safety and security; product and ingredient renovation; and responsible marketing. "This plan is about not just doing better, but doing what's necessary. We're doing this because it's the right thing to do but also because it's good business," Reid said. "Cre- ating mutual benefits for the people in our supply chain, and mitigating our impact on the environment are sound business choices. We also know that increasingly our consumers care about these issues as much as we do." Mars will be working to engage con- sumers on this topic through a marketing campaign for M&M's. The new campaign leverages Mars' tremendous reach with con- sumers to champion the power of renew- able energy and highlight the need for action in addressing climate change. Mars purchases enough wind power to offset the electricity needed for all U.S. production of M&M's. Renewable energy also plays an im- portant role in Mars' Sustainable in a Gen- eration Plan and key markets (U.S. and U.K.) already use it to power 100 percent of operations, with more markets to follow. GN

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